2022.08.24 WednesdayWe have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. I am under that impression. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. We need creative leadership, Miller said. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Peoples common sense level is cooked. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Its crazy. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. We believe that there are two main reasons. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Right now, its horrible. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Im not happy with the way things are now. I find that hard to believe. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. I think we needed somebody like him.. Our roads need to be fixed. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Theres too much mishandling, she said. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. In addition to Florida Gov. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. By Cara Ding. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. I think all politicians are crooks. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. About The Author. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. And we just want that to continue. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. They need to take care of the older people here. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. This includes personalizing content and advertising. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. But according to the. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. 0:00 0:00. I dont watch TV. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Farming also is huge here. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. 'I Should Start Voting'. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. Vance. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Weve never done that before.. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Theres significant variability among them though. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Theyre scared. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Im not happy with either party. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. I think he is more for giving to the people.. But thats not the picture I look at. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. I got a life. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger.
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